Hong Kong is currently being defined by images of defiant faces concealed behind balaclavas, gallant and fierce eyes shielded behind goggles, and hands equipped with spray paint and makeshift shields.

What started off as a peaceful demonstration in June has morphed into one of the greatest political imbroglios since the Tiananmen Square protest in 1989 in China—a protest that killed hundreds, possibly thousands.

Hong Kong, one of the most important global financial and economic hubs in the world, has now been engulfed in violence and recently fell into its first economic recession in a decade.

As the region closes in on its sixth month of relentless demonstrations, there are no signs that protests will dissipate. This article aims to shed light on the origins of this current mayhem.

THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF HONG KONG’S SEMI-AUTONOMY

Hong Kong was ceded to the British Empire in 1842 at the conclusion of the First Opium War, when the British Empire defeated the Qing Dynasty of China. Hong Kong was under British rule until 1997 when it was returned to China.

Under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, following the transfer of Hong Kong to China, Hong Kong was to be ruled under a separate governing and economic system from that of mainland China under the “one country, two systems” arrangement for an additional 50 years, making the region semi-autonomous. Under this framework, Hong Kong would run its own governmental system, legal, economic and financial affairs (except for foreign and defence affairs), which translated to enhanced autonomy and increased protection of fundamental rights such as freedom of speech and assembly as compared to mainland China.

Hong Kong has its own currency, flag, and passport. A visa is needed for mainland Chinese citizens to enter Hong Kong. All of this independent infrastructure is set to expire in 2047.

Importantly, Hong Kong still does not enjoy full autonomy for several reasons. One major curtailment of Hong Kong’s autonomy is that political candidates are selected by the Communist Party of China.

Time is ticking for Hong Kongers—a massive change is just a few decades away. Important questions have been raised regarding the future of Hong Kong after the expiration date and citizens are well aware that when 2047 comes, Hong Kong’s fate will be in the exclusive hands of the Communist Party of China.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2019 PROTESTS

There is a rough consensus that the chief catalyst of Hong Kong’s current state of pandemonium started in early 2018 when a 19-year-old Hong Kong resident, Chan Tong-Kai murdered his pregnant girlfriend, Poon Hiu-wing, in Taiwan and then proceeded to return to Hong Kong. Despite the fact that Chan confessed to the murder, the authorities were unable to charge him, nor could they extradite him to Taiwan—the sole reason being that there was no extradition agreement in place between the two jurisdictions.

Consequently, the Hong Kong government decided to amend its fugitive laws to allow for criminal perpetrators to be extradited to places Hong Kong did not already have an extradition treaty with, including mainland China, Taiwan and Macau. This triggered public furore in Hong Kong.

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets, clamouring for the withdrawal of the bill—a state of affairs that remains through the present.

As each day passes, the picture gets uglier and the stories become more distressing. Dangerous battles between the police and protesters now dominate roads and public spaces, with committed protesters vandalising shops and hurling petrol bombs at the police who reciprocate by firing tear gas and rubber bullets. Hong Kong has been rendered an unsafe territory, with an uncertain future.

Why were Hong Kongers upset about the extradition treaty? There were, and remain, fears that the extradition treaty will subject Hong Kong citizens to arbitrary detention and unfair trials in China, a country notorious for incarcerating citizens that dissent or displease the government. Protestors have expressed concern that the introduction of this treaty will only tighten China’s control over Hong Kong, with many people still hoping that political union in 2047 can be avoided. Still others view the bill as a further way to target journalists and activists.

In September 2019, the extradition bill was fully shelved by Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. However, this did not appease the protesters, who had four other demands:

• amnesty for the arrested protesters;

• demanding that the protests not be characterised as “riots”;

• an independent inquiry into alleged police brutality; and finally

• the implementation of complete universal suffrage.

The government has refused these requests, resulting in 2 million people coming together out of Hong Kong’s 7 million residents to march in defiance. To date, there have been 2 deaths, 9 suicides, 2600+ injured and 4400+ arrested and counting as a result of the continued protests.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

The situation in Hong Kong is now entering a critical stage. Protesters are increasingly defiant and determined, unfazed by the prospect of arrest—in a region where rioting carries specific penalties of up to 10 years in prison. The crisis has divided those supporting the protesters from those who support law enforcement. The protests also pose a quandary for those who support the pro-democracy movement but are deeply concerned about the impact it will have on Hong Kong’s economy and its status as an attractive financial capital. There are also some who agree with the aims of the protesters but criticise their tactics.

In November 2019, US President Donald Trump signed two bills supporting the Hong Kong protesters. The Human Rights and Democracy Act involves an annual review of Hong Kong’s autonomy to determine whether conditions in Hong Kong still justify the region’s special status with the US (a status that would help Hong Kong’s economy). The second bill bans the export of munitions to the Hong Kong police force.

While the protesters have celebrated the support they’ve received, China furiously denounced the legislation as a gross interference with international law. China has made allegations that the US has been distorting the truth and accused them of fomenting unrest. The foreign ministry demanded that the US stop interfering with China’s affairs and threatened to take “countermeasures” if necessary, although this was not elaborated on further.

WHAT WILL CHINA DO?

China, as an authoritarian government, could feasibly mount a military intervention from the mainland and put the protest to rest. However, the cost of such action could be the loss of Hong Kong as a global financial hub. Hong Kong serves as a critical business and economic conduit for China, as many foreign countries prefer to do business there due to the region’s independent judicial system and friendly banking structure. Functioning as a “financial lung”, Hong Kong remains a very valuable possession, which may explain China’s patience and restraint on the matter. A military intervention might also spark outrage internationally.

At the current rate of deterioration, Hong Kong’s future autonomy remains uncertain. Some argue the only way forward is for Hong Kongers to accept China’s sovereignty and for China to accept that Hong Kong is unique. However, the elephant in the room is the role of democracy, and of democratic principles, in the future of Hong Kong. A significant number of Hong Kongers remain committed to defending democracy.

Andrea is an aspiring barrister, currently undertaking the Bar course. Passionate about Human Rights, Andrea acknowledges the distressing deprivation of rights in this world and endeavors to spread awareness through writing.