One of the many consequences of Donald Trump’s four years of presidency materialised on the 4 November 2020 when the US officially left the Paris Climate Accord. The Trump administration formally notified the UN that they would withdraw in 2017, as Article 28 of the agreement prevents a country exiting within the first three years, with the accord effective in 2016. This makes it the only country to have left the agreement, with the fate of climate diplomacy seemingly resting on the outcome of the US presidential election. Joe Biden has called Trump a “climate arsonist”, in view of his plans to increase the use of fossil fuels, invalidate climate science, and reduce environmental protections. A second Trump term would have been hugely detrimental to the climate movement. 

PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT

The Paris Climate Agreement was set up on 12 December 2015, where parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to fight climate change and to intensify the actions required for a sustainable future through multilateral efforts. Its central focus is to reinforce the global response to the threat of climate change, aiming to preclude increases that are already causing more extreme weather and affecting world supplies through a cohesive framework for action and support. Due to the burning of fossil fuels, the earth is one degree Celsius hotter than what it was prior to industrialisation; the agreement aims to prevent a temperature increase past 2 degrees Celsius.  

The US this year, along with the rest of the world, has truly seen the effects of this temperature increase through intense heat waves, fierce wildfires, and record hurricanes. In 2019, the US’s global carbon emissions equated to 14% of the world’s global emissions, with the most recent National Climate Assessment (compiled by the federal government), ascertaining that climate change “creates new risks and exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in communities across the United States, presenting growing challenges in human health and safety, quality of life, and the rate of economic growth”. 

A REGRETTABLE DECISION 

An integral part of President Trump’s 2016 election campaign was leaving the Paris Climate Agreement, binding this with his vision of a bolstered US energy sector, focused particularly on oil and coal. He believed that the agreement was unfair on the US, consistently mischaracterising the voluntary terms of the deal, calling it one-sided, and withdrawing stating that it was the end to “draconian financial and economic burdens the agreement imposes on [their] country”. However, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the G20 established that climate policy can improve growth and employment levels, and that G20 countries could see a net increase of 5% in their gross domestic product.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Katsunobu Kato, described the withdrawal of the US as “regrettable”, noting that climate change should be tackled through multilateral efforts and as an international community. However, in the wake of the US exit, President Xi Jinping called for a “green revolution”, stating that China would aim to be carbon neutral by 2060.

A BIDEN VICTORY

Joe Biden will become the new president of the United States in January 2021. He has vowed to re-join the Paris Climate Accord on his first day of office, though the US may need to propose an immediate plan for reducing emissions (a Nationally Determined Contribution). Biden’s climate plan is decisive and daring, announcing a spend of $2 trillion over four years to rapidly increase the use of clean energy in electricity and building sectors, and in transportation, wanting the US to achieve a 100% clean energy economy by 2050. This re-engagement of the US could pressure its allies, and others, to step up.

Biden’s climate plan links tackling climate change with COVID-19 economic recovery, while also addressing issues of racism in the US. Minority ethnic communities have argued for decades that minority groups and lower-wealth communities are disproportionately affected by pollutants and the effects of climate change; they are the least able to recover, and are often forgotten as decisions are made about rebuilding. Biden’s plan aims to establish an office for environmental and climate justice at the Justice Department to develop a framework to address how “environmental policy decisions of the past have failed communities of [colour]”, which would be a monumental step forward in the right direction.

Emma has a Master's degree in International Relations (Terrorism and Political Violence) from the University of Birmingham. She has a specific interest in the international order, specifically geopolitics and the importance of multilateralism to rising global challenges such as refugee crises and international human rights. She is pursuing a career in international relations and research.

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