Hurricane Eta, the twelfth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall in Central America on 3 November. In the following days, Eta wreaked havoc across Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras, leaving over 200 dead and thousands more without homes. 

The rainfall, winds, and flooding from Eta produced an estimated seven billion dollars in damage and left few lives in the region untouched. A mere 13 days later, Hurricane Iota followed in Eta’s wake, creating an additional $1.25 billion in damage. 

It is worth noting that these climate challenges are not exclusive to Central America, and these events are not new. Steve Trent, executive director of the Environmental Justice Foundation, notes, “Eta and Iota are one wake-up call among many—Maria, Idai, Irma, Harvey, Katrina,  Kenneth. There is a litany of names of increasingly destructive hurricanes and cyclones that are causing the death or displacement of millions. Every day brings new damning stories from every corner of the world.” The stories are even more damning when they involve the destruction or displacement of thousands of families and the erosion of entire cultures and ways of life. 

It will take years for the region to recover from the damage caused by Eta and Iota, much of which was uninsured. Immediate relief attempts have already faced difficulties due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the unstable nature of many governments and communities in the region will require careful attention both in the long and short term. 

In particular, Eta and Iota will likely spur new waves of internal and international migration, which must be anticipated and adequately addressed to ensure the safety of affected populations. The “Dry Corridor” of Central America faces the combined impacts of both “slow-onset” hazards, such as drought and sea-level rise, and “sudden-onset” hazards, such as hurricanes. Pablo Escribano, a Thematic Specialist in Migration, Environment and Climate Change at the International Organisation for Migration’s (IOM) Regional Office for Central America, North America and the Caribbean, observes that this combination makes Central America particularly vulnerable.

Many of the communities that bore the brunt of Eta and Iota relied on small-scale agriculture, and these sudden-onset disasters caused further disruption to a way of life already under threat from slow-onset hazards. In Central America, relief and recovery efforts are complicated by state fragility, which has allowed for the growth of organised crime. These vulnerabilities may make migration a compelling solution. Driven by the knowledge that their home communities are unlikely to be restored to liveable condition for years, if at all, migrants may seek refuge and opportunity in cities in their home countries. If their home states are unable to provide for them, many may also choose to migrate across borders.

The challenges, then, are twofold. First, governments, IGOs, and NGOs must provide for the needs of the displaced with particular attention to women and minority groups whose needs have historically been overlooked and who, as a result, face additional burdens in migrating or rebuilding their livelihoods. Second, they must create long-term visions and frameworks to build resilience amongst affected communities and prepare for inevitable future disasters.

THE CHALLENGES TO FORMING A SOLUTION 

Addressing the needs of these displaced peoples is complicated by the lack of information surrounding the links between climate change and migration. Escribano highlights that surveys of the caravan that brings Central American migrants to the United States-Mexico border have not been able to deduce whether climate change and extreme weather have motivated significant migration. Instead, most cite economic hardship and loss of livelihood as their reasons for migrating, even though climate may be a driver of such hardship.

Similarly, Escribano says, “we’ve managed to raise attention to the areas of origin of migrants, but we’re not paying as much attention to destination areas or figuring out where these migrants settle and what challenges they face.” By filling these gaps in knowledge, policymakers and humanitarian groups will be able to understand migrants’ needs, better help them adapt to their new surroundings and establish the support networks necessary to economic and social stability.

One key area of concern is cities. Migrants to urban areas face difficulties in building social safety nets, and in Central America they frequently seek employment in the informal economy. However, the informal labour market is highly unstable and provides limited access to healthcare and other resources; so migrants remain vulnerable to crime and exploitation. These hazards are compounded for women and ethnic minorities. Urban development must be mindful both of creating and addressing sustainability goals and of promoting the welfare of these underserved populations.

Some governments in Central America are beginning to recognise the link between migration and climate change. Belize, for example, has integrated migration issues into its national climate strategy. After Eta and Iota struck in November, the Guatemalan and Honduran governments called for international recognition and assistance in addressing the climate crisis. Yet, as Andrew Harper, the UNHCR’s Special Advisor on Climate Action, notes, “in Central America, there are a number of states that have been in denial about climate change, but those states are also the ones that are often being hammered by extreme weather events.” As a result, Harper continues, “you have to be smart in how you approach these issues. You have to find a common point of understanding.”

However, though some governments are finding themselves no longer able to deny climate change, they continue to overlook the impacts of events like Eta and Iota on migration and mobility. The latest migrant caravan, which departed from Honduras in mid-January, has been met with violence and disdain by the Guatemalan and Mexican governments. Ironically, however, as Amali Tower, founder and executive director of Climate Refugees, observes, “the Trump administration slashed aid to Central American countries intended to aid development of jobs and sustainable farming.” Had such aid not been slashed, migration may not have become as pressing a concern.

These developments have placed migrants in a double bind, which has been particularly challenging for the region’s Indigenous communities. Tower points to “structural discrimination, systemic exclusion, and a long history of human rights abuses, including land dispossession and even environmental leaders being killed” as a few of the reasons why “it’s not surprising that the development of Indigenous populations in every Central American country lags far behind national averages”. Climate change, including desertification and sea level rise, is already forcing Indigenous peoples to leave their ancestral homelands, thereby uprooting the fragile cultural and social structures that have afforded them agency in otherwise deeply hostile surroundings.

Yet, the situation is not without hope. Kayly Ober, Senior Advocate and Program Manager of the Climate Displacement Program at Refugees International, points to sustainable development solutions that focus on building resilience in order to enable access to key resources that allow people to remain in their communities in the face of climate change. This includes, for instance, flood- or drought-resistant seeds, alternative irrigation methods, and skills training for occupations outside of agriculture. Ober states that “it’s about giving people options and enabling them to live in dignity”.

The EJF’s Steve Trent echoes the importance of living in dignity, pointing out that “99% of all deaths from weather-related disasters occur in the world’s 50 least developed countries, which contribute less than 1% of global carbon emissions”. Recognising the rights and listening to the voices of those most affected by climate injustice is therefore key to formulating effective policies at the national and international levels. 

When it comes to formulating such policies, Andrew Harper remains positive: “people now recognise that, the longer we delay, the more far-reaching and costly and lethal the consequences are”. Trent expresses a similar sentiment, stating that “it is not too late to act. What is needed now, above all, is political will and leadership”. The COVID-19 pandemic may have provided some of that will. On one hand, Harper points out that though the pandemic may have distracted people from the issue of climate change, on the other, it has demonstrated that communities can join together in the face of an existential threat. 

The struggles and lessons from Central America’s experience with Eta and Iota serve as an urgent warning. Countless other communities, ranging from Scandinavia to the Sahel to the South Pacific, are facing similar challenges. Though there is still time to act, it is limited. Only with proactive governments equipped with a strong understanding of the needs of their people can the climate crisis—and the migration issues that inevitably follow—be adequately addressed.

This article was published by Earth Refuge as part of our January 2021 collaboration with E&U for the Climate and Human Rights Pulse on Environmental Justice and Human Rights.

Maggie is an undergraduate at the University of Oxford, where she has held leadership roles with a student-run publishing house and a student-run art gallery, among other groups. She is particularly interested in womxn's rights, disability rights, prisoners' rights, and environmental justice.