Today, climate change stands as an alarming global issue that needs immediate attention. It serves as an urgent threat to resource distribution, security, and most importantly human displacement across the world. The World Social Report recently named Climate Change as a prominent factor in widening inequality of resources amongst the displaced population. However, the despondent effect of climate change, whether in direct relation to migration or as a contributing factor to it, is still majorly unexplored.

Historically, climate has been a prominent deciding factor in human migratory patterns. Early human settlers in the Palaeolithic age migrated in search of unexplored land with an adequate climate to sustain agriculture. The emergence of complex societies of Egypt and Mesopotamia from densely located communities into more resource-centric populations is another example of human migrations because of the depleting environment. More recently, owing to the changing climate, Cyclone Idai, which struck Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Malawi in March 2019, led more than 200 families to refugee camps and exile. Similarly, the refugee crisis of the European Union (EU) raises concerns of safety for the asylum seekers especially in the given sphere of rising ocean level of the Aegean Sea. In situations such as these, endogenous state actors like migration policies, environmental laws and social insurgency seem to decide the fate of the displaced population.

​To understand climate displacement, one must first grasp environmental flight situation. The term “environmental flight situation” covers – in accordance with the working definition – all situations of environmental change, which pose a serious threat to life or livelihoods and may therefore possibly trigger involuntary migration. The term (internal or international) “environmental flight” refers – in contrast to the term “environmental flight situation” to the actual involuntary departure from the home (internally or internationally) for the reasons mentioned. It is said that by 2050, large areas of the world are expected to become drier—the proportion of land in constant drought is expected to increase from two percent to 10 percent. Meanwhile, the proportion of land suffering extreme drought is predicted to increase from one per cent at present to 30 per cent by the end of the 21st century. As a consequence of shifting environmental conditions, the proposition of a rise in human migration and, to an extent, even generating serious security concerns because of it, comes into light. 

Considering a legalised term has not been allotted to environmental displacement, terms such as “refugees” and “migrants,” which seem similar in semantics, can cause a huge difference in the treatment of the said population apropos of the international community and laws. The primary challenge for academic and political discourse is to first classify the displaced population as a result of climate change as “climate refugees” or “climate migrants”. Often, the term climate refugee is used in cases where there has been population displacement due to a natural calamity. Though this term accords due urgency to the issue, it also structurally fails to encompass the rights of international laws pertaining to refugees. The United Nations’ 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol referring to the status of refugees state that the term should be restricted to those fleeing persecution from a state: “a refugee is a person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country”. An alternative term which surpasses the negative and problematic connotations of the former could be “forced climate evacuee”. Forced climate evacuee refers to an individual or a community of individuals who were driven to flee their home country as a result of a natural or human induced disaster. Since most of the environmental displacement occurs within a nation’s borders, a trans-national term such as this can cover a wide diaspora of environmental flight situations and its resulting displacement.

THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE REFUGEE CRISIS IN EUROPE

The refugee crisis in Europe, particularly in the regions of Greece and Asia Minor has garnered a lot of surveillance by respective governments in the past couple of years, with political refugees migrating from Syria into the continent. At the beginning of 2020, thousands of asylum seekers from Syria were pushed towards Greece from Turkey. This provoked a nationalist backlash in the country followed by a stricter border patrol around the shorelines. This response of Greece, backed by most EU members, is not unusual. The Greek government has often used tear gas and rubber bullets to prevent refugees and migrants from entering the region. According to one report, Greece has maintained a detention camp for Syrian migrants and refugees in order to return them back to Turkey, violating the international law of non-refoulement. However, the proponents of seeking refuge for thousands of Syrians go way further than just political unrest. Researchers have found a cogent link between emigration and climate change in Syria. 

Understanding the complex structure of climate change and its influence on the survival capacity of communities is difficult. In Syria, it was majorly climate and not war that drove people to seek refuge elsewhere. The drought in the northern part of the country caused a major deterioration in the way irrigation systems worked. This drought, in combination with the political insurgency led to an exacerbated search for sustenance for Syrians. One report, “Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited,” states that the climate change caused by human-induced events was a contributory factor in the dire condition of Syria before the civil war, which resulted in large scale migration, exacerbating the socio-economic stresses that unpinned Syria’s descent into war. Today, more than half of the country’s population lacks access to food amenities, water security, and basic health facilities. Syria’s case demonstrates that climate change can lead to international security crises demanding stringent action from political, military, and development institutions. However, the role of climate change is not only restricted as a cause of displacement - it can also worsen the situation of political asylum and refugee seekers as well.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS THE LIVES OF MILLIONS OF REFUGEES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

The European refugee crisis now spans a period of five years, with more than 120,000 migrants and asylum seekers arriving in 2019 alone, with most of them crossing the Mediterranean Sea. The Mediterranean and Ionian seas are infamously known for a large number of deaths during migration attempts. According to figures from both the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration, more than 18,000 people have lost their lives in Mediterranean crossings since 2014. The question that arises here is that with a temperature rise in the sea higher than current global warming trends (+1.1°C) and a stricter intolerance towards refugee migration from the EU, is the Mediterranean Sea going to become even more fatal for refugees in the future?

The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable climate change hotspots in the world. The current rise in sea level, surface level temperature, and erratic oceanic variations are the cause of hundreds of migrant deaths, but the studies show that it is only likely to worsen in the future. The sea’s climate conditions are mainly governed by the South Asian summer monsoon which fluctuates as a consequence of global warming. We may witness in future even more dangerous waters for refugees to cross.

There lies an urgent need to expand the safe and legal route for refugees. The EU’s policies on the refugee crisis have shown structural flaws in maintaining the safety of refugees seeking asylum, as well as the negligence of the authorities in understanding the impact of climate change on the migrating population. Instead of building detention camps to keep migrants out, it needs to own up to the responsibility of shared safety for all while respecting international laws. Thus, alongside relocating asylum seekers and sharing equal responsibility between all EU states, building global governance in recognising climate change as a prominent factor in displacement discourse is crucial.

Kashvi is a student and youth advocate from New Delhi, India. She's a researcher and writer and likes to explore the intersection between climate change and human rights with specification to public and international policies. She is the youngest journalist selected across Asia-Pacific for UN Women and OHCHR led programs and has been closely associated with ASEAN Youth Foundation, Delhi Commission For Women and Feminism In India.

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