“First they came for the Karens and we didn’t speak out; then they came for the Rohingya and we didn’t speak out; now they are coming for all of us.” These words were written on a placard and held by an individual protesting against the military coup in Myanmar. The words are based on the poem First They Came, attributed to Martin Niemöller, which describes the Nazi’s phased purging of their targets. The poem has become synonymous with themes of persecution and personal responsibility, and the revisions to the original piece by the protester in Myanmar are fitting. It aptly summarises how the world could have foreshadowed the military’s recent power grab on 1 February 2021.

Though it was hoped that factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the necessity to recover economically would have limited the military’s ability to launch a coup, the world should not have been “blindsided,” as many analysts claim to have been. In addition to the complex power dynamic between the state counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi, and the omnipotent military (known as the Tatmadaw), the systematic genocidal regime conducted by the Tatmadaw against the Rohingya in Rakhine State, as well as persecution of other ethnic minorities such as the Karen and the Shan, demonstrates the military’s ability to target groups of people and its willingness to break international law.

A U-TURN ON DEMOCRACY

Following a coup in 1962, Myanmar became a dictatorship and suffered under oppressive military rule until 2011. A cautious liberalisation began in 2010. Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, the National Human Rights Commission was created, and new laws were drawn up allowing unions to operate. Following this, Aung San Suu Kyi’s pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a majority in the 2015 election. Though the NLD won by a landslide, the military maintained partial control. In parliament, the armed forces were guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the constitution ensured that they retained control of three ministries: Defence, Border, and Home Affairs—meaning that they also governed the police.

It was hoped that, with the establishment of democracy, reformation would come to Myanmar given that Aung San Suu Kyi was a former political prisoner and daughter of the revolutionary Aung San. However, politically repressive laws endured, activists and journalists continued to be targeted, and minority ethnic groups continued to be persecuted. Despite this, Myanmar was the most democratic it had been for decades. Poverty declined substantially, with 24.8 percent of the population living under the poverty line in 2017 compared with 48.2 percent in 2005. Though repression still existed, there was some space for expression and the hope was that this would slowly increase. It was a fragile democracy and still developing, but some form of a democracy at least. Now, that process has been paused and, potentially, will regress.

On 1 February 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior members of the NLD, like president Win Myint, were apprehended. Power was handed over to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing after the military declared a state emergency following the elections in November 2020, stating that the government had failed to investigate allegations of fraud after its proxy party was defeated by a landslide. The Tatmadaw rationalised the coup by citing a clause in the 2008 constitution—a clause that was administered during the Tatmadaw’s previous military rule and that states that the government’s executive, legislative, and judicial powers can be handed over to the military in cases of national emergency. Aung San Suu Kyi has since been charged with illegally importing walkie-talkies, which could result in her spending two years in prison. Ousted president Win Myint has also been charged under the Natural Disaster Management Law for breaching COVID-19 regulations during an election campaign event. This carries a maximum prison sentence of three years.

GROWING PROTEST MOVEMENT CHALLENGES THE TATMADAW

 Tensions have heightened since the arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, and people have taken to the streets in response to the Tatmadaw’s actions. The military has stationed armoured vehicles in Myanmar’s major cities as mass protests steadily grow. Protesters recently attempted to block the movement of security forces by parking cars across roads. A group called Myanmar Hackers disrupted websites including those belonging to the Central Bank of Myanmar and military-run propaganda agencies like True News Information Team. Many public sector employees such as teachers and railway workers have joined the protests by going on strike. Crowds continue to gather in mass carrying placards saying “free our leader” or “we don’t accept military coup,” joining a self-described “Five Twos Revolution”—a reference to the date 22 February 2021, echoing the 8888 (8 August 1988) uprising against Ne Win’s military regime.

 The military has imposed a night-time curfew in many townships across Myanmar, banned meetings of more than five people in Yangon and Mandalay, and has warned that protesters could face up to 20 years in prison. Since 1 February 2021, near-total internet shutdowns have occurred in an attempt to limit the mobilisation of protesters. In addition to these measures, the military is directly responding to the protesters with violence. Water cannons, rubber bullets, and tear gas have been used. Three protesters died over the weekend of the 20 and 21 February 2021—two of them were shot when security forces opened fire on striking ship workers in Mandalay. Another man was shot in Yangon. Mya Thwate Thwate Khaing, 20, was the first protest fatality and was shot in the head on 9 February. The Secretary-General of the UN tweeted in response, condemning the lethal use of violence, writing that “the use of lethal force, intimidation & harassment against peaceful demonstrators is unacceptable. Everyone has a right to peaceful assembly. I call on all parties to respect election results and return to civilian rule.”

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT

 The United Nations (UN) ambassador to Myanmar, Kyaw Moe Tyn, delivered a passionate speech to the UN General Assembly on 26 February, asserting how international action is needed to overturn the Tatmadaw. Access to the country, however, is limited, and the constant internet shutdowns make gathering reliable information difficult. The outcome of the situation in Myanmar will depend on both the determination of the protesters and the intensity of international involvement.

 The United States has resolutely asserted that Myanmar should return to democracy as soon as possible, imposing sanctions on Myanmar specifically aimed at the junta leaders and military-owned companies. Canada and Britain have also frozen the assets of military members. Additionally, the World Bank announced a temporary halt to disbursements on projects in Myanmar. Economic sanctions like these, which are usually adopted in an attempt to encourage democracy and pursue regime change, are designed to minimise the effects on innocent civilians. However, they can be unsuccessful and research shows that they work only about a third of the time. Sanctions can de-legitimise and undermine authoritarians, like the generals of the Tatmadaw, causing them to respond with violence towards perceived domestic threats, like journalists, activists, and protesters.

 Western states, however, do not have as much leverage as Asian states, who are Myanmar’s biggest trading partners and investors. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is not currently speaking as a collective. Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines have all declined to criticise the coup. Singapore, the biggest investor in Myanmar, has indicated that it is deeply concerned with the unravelling situation and condemned the use of force against protesters. Indonesian Foreign Minister Reto Marsudi has lobbied for an ASEAN meeting, resulting in one held on 2 March.

 Multilateral response typically works better than unilateral response, hence why intervention by the UN would be preferable. The role of the United Nations Security Council is to ensure international peace and security, and is constructed of fifteen members, five of which are permanent (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Permanent members have the right to veto motions, like how China and Russia blocked the UN from condemning the actions of the Myanmar military. China said that any response should “avoid escalating the tension or further complicating the system,” while suggesting that what is happening in Myanmar is essentially Myanmar’s internal affairs.

 Unless solved, Myanmar’s coup will affect the rest of Southeast Asia. Coupled with the democratic backsliding of Cambodia and Thailand, the region will further regress politically, adding to regional instability, and potentially affecting economic growth. Migration flows may increase, particularly movements of ethnic minorities such as the Rohingya who have already suffered greatly at the hands of the military. Armed ethnic insurgencies and separatist movements may emerge. A resolution is needed as soon as possible so Myanmar can return to some form of democracy.

Emma has a Master's degree in International Relations (Terrorism and Political Violence) from the University of Birmingham. She has a specific interest in the international order, specifically geopolitics and the importance of multilateralism to rising global challenges such as refugee crises and international human rights. She is pursuing a career in international relations and research.

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