Early on 4 November 2020, the Ethiopian Government began military operations in Tigray, one of the country’s semi-autonomous regions. According to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, it was a response to an attack on a federal military base by the ruling party in that region; the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Hundreds were reportedly killed and injured on 9 November in an incident around Mai Kadra, in Western Tigray where much of the fighting has occurred so far. By 10 November, more than 14,000 Ethiopian refugees, half of whom were children, had crossed the border into Sudan. 

THE SITUATION IN ETHIOPIA

On 4 November, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched an offensive aimed at ousting the leadership of the rebel province, his bitter rivals. Just one year after he won the Nobel Peace Prize. Today, 9 million people risk being trapped in the fighting or being forced to leave their homes. The conflict also risks aggravating the humanitarian situation in a region where there is already a food crisis due to the locust invasion that has affected the Horn of Africa region in recent months.

Prime Minister Ahmed aims to win against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) by obscuring images, and cutting off the Internet, light, and telephone network. As result, the entire Tigray region has been isolated and unreachable by telephone. Internet access services are blocked, and the supply of electricity suspended. The federal government also declared a six-month state of emergency across the region and the Prime Minister announced the launch of military operations to tame the Tigray rebellion. 

What escalated the crisis? First of all, the decision of the Federal Parliament to figuratively cut off all bridges with the Federal State Administration of Tigray; then the reaction of the Tigray Government to refuse the presence of a military commander sent by the Central Government and the denial to close its airspace to any aircraft. Finally, government sources speak of an attack by Tigrinya forces on military bases of the federal army, but there is currently no official evidence.

In this growing tension the central players are on the one hand the Prime Minister, head of the Ethiopian Federal Government and leader of the new Prosperity Party; and on the other hand, the administration of the federal state of Tigray led by the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF). After the appointment of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister, there has been a continuous escalation of tensions between him and the TPLF, building on their irreconcilable difference of views over the future of Ethiopia. The TPLF desires ethno-linguistic federalism as ratified by the 1994 Constitution whilst the Prime Minister supports the so-called medemer (“synergy” in Amharic language), which proposes a return to more centralized constitutional model. To date, the medemer strategy has resulted in a whirlwind of changes in the social and political life of the country.

The surprise announcement of a resumption in talks between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 was the catalyst for an uptick in internal Ethiopian tension. The launch of the peace process was perceived by the leadership of the TPLF as a coup, as it had not seen an active involvement of Tigray, which shares most of the border with Eritrea and had a large involvement in the tragic war of 1998-2000. 

Furthermore, a constitutional dispute sent relations into a nosedive. In June, the Prime Minister’s government postponed elections scheduled for August due to COVID-19 and the federal parliament thus extended the terms of the federal and regional governments. Tigray rejected this as unconstitutional and held its own regional election on 9 September, in defiance of federal warnings. Addis Ababa subsequently ruled Tigray’s leadership unlawful, while Tigray declared it would not recognise the Prime Minister’s administration after its original term expired on 5 October.

What Abiy Ahmed presents as a political confrontation between the federal government and the TPLF risks becoming a real inter-ethnic conflict and therefore not simply resolved with an eventual military defeat of the Popular Front. "We don't negotiate with criminals... We bring them to justice, not to the negotiating table," Mamo Mihretu, a senior aide to Mr Abiy, told the BBC. 

Military experts believe there is a significant risk that Ethiopian national troops could be drawn into a long and brutal guerrilla war against battle-hardened Tigrayans who are fighting in their mountainous homeland. Though only seven million people live in Tigray out of a total Ethiopian population of 110 million, much of the government’s military equipment is kept in the province and Tigrayan forces could dig in as the military advanced into the more mountainous terrain towards Mekelle.

WAR CRIMES AND HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS: A NEED TO PROTECT PEOPLE

Since the start of the military operations in Tigray, hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands displaced. As many as 27,000 refugees have arrived in Sudan, with 4,000 more crossing from Ethiopia every day. Half of the refugees are under the age of 18. They arrive every day, in the makeshift camp of Oum Rakoba. The UN expects a flow of 200,000 refugees. Consequently, it has raised concerns that this large influx of refugees into Sudan could destabilise a nation already supporting about a million people displaced from other African countries. “This is the largest influx into east Sudan in 20 years. It is very, very sudden. This is a full-scale humanitarian crisis that has unfolded in two weeks,” said Dana Hughes, spokesperson of the United Nations refugee agency in Nairobi.

They are arriving exhausted, scared. They had to flee very quickly, often with just the clothes on their backs. They heard the fighting and just had to go. “We took the baby and escaped under the bombs. There were so many dead. We arrived covered in dust, with nothing” tells Taharsta Mahya. 

Furthermore, the United Nations speaks of possible war crimes. If it were confirmed, “the [deliberate] killings of civilians would obviously be equal to war crimes and there should be an independent investigation and full accountability for what happened”, noted High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. Amnesty International also confirmed the massacre of a large number of people in the city of Mai-Kadra, in the state of Tigray. Hundreds of civilians, mostly day workers, were stabbed or stabbed to death. The exact size of the massacre is still uncertain due to the total blockade of communications. The news agency of the state government of Amhara reported about 500 dead.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE HORN OF AFRICA

The border between Tigray and Sudan, where thousands of refugees – including federal soldiers – are pouring, is at risk of destabilisation. Military operations in Tigray were concentrated right from the start in the western part, as Sudan is the only way to access international markets, to supply food, weapons, and fuel for the TPLF. Additionally, Sudan is inevitably an area of ​​relief for militiamen engaged in the conflict. A whole series of armed groups already operate along the border, some of which are linked to the TPLF, others linked to the federal government. The militarisation of this area risks affecting bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Sudan with all the potential consequences of the case on security. 

If the conflict were to spill outside Ethiopia’s borders, it may potentially destabilise the Horn of Africa region. The US and China have several strategic military bases in that region, the closest being Djibouti. On 16 November, Reuters reported that President Vladimir Putin had approved the creation of a Russian naval facility in Sudan that would be capable of mooring nuclear-powered surface vessels, clearing the way for Moscow’s first substantial military foothold in Africa since the Soviet fall. If these military bases and facilities were to be impacted, it could cause foreign powers to get militarily involved in the region’s conflict.

“The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region. I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute,” UN Secretary General António Guterres said in a Twitter post last week.

POLITICAL SURVIVAL AT STAKE

If not stopped in time, the current crisis could trigger further political fragmentation along ethnic lines with unpredictable but certainly disturbing consequences. The demonisation of ethnic groups is a vicious and lethal circle from which Ethiopia must be spared. The danger of a humanitarian crisis is near and de-escalation is needed.

The Prime Minister was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize but is now using armed forces with a certain ruthlessness instead of seeking mediation, perhaps resorting to regional bodies. According to the analysis of the historian Uoldelul Chelati Dirar, the impression is that his project was to carry out a surgical blitz to remove the current leadership of the TPLF and replace it with administrators in tune with his political line. Once the blitz failed, the prospect turned to a military tug-of-war intended to strengthen mutual positions.  

For both contenders, political survival is at stake. The solution can only go through a negotiating table. Otherwise, the most immediate risk is the implosion of the Ethiopian state, already destabilized by dramatic internal lacerations, with a catastrophic cascade effect on the entire region.

It may still be possible to avoid this nightmare scenario if concerted pressure is applied quickly to urge the parties to cease fire. That likely requires both sides to realise they have no path to quick victory, and to sit around the table together despite describing each other as illegitimate. 

Intervention by the international community is urgently needed to try to encourage a negotiated solution that removes the spectre of a devastating return to war in a region that has already been tormented for a long time. 

Reason must triumph over the unreasonable use of arms.

Giulia is holds a Master's Degree in International Cooperation on Human Rights from the University of Bologna. She has a Bachelor's in Philosophy. Her fields of interest are immigration and refugee law, particularly related to unaccompanied foreign minors. She would love to work at the United Nations in the future.

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