On 9 May 2022, the son of the former Filipino dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and ally of the outgoing President Duterte, obtained more than double the votes than his closest rival Leni Robredo, with nearly 97% of the votes counted. With this election, it is reasonable to wonder what direction Duterte's war on drugs will take. The new president will have the power to obstruct legal proceedings from the International Criminal Court (ICC) relating to the war on drugs, which has led to between 12,000 and 30,000 deaths in the country.  

WAR ON DRUGS IN THE PHILIPPINES

To summarise Duterte’s policy, the war on drugs started in 2016, intending to “neutralise illegal drug personalities nationwide,” urging members of the public to kill criminals and drug addicts. At that time, Duterte, nicknamed "the Punisher", admitted to the struggle in border control against illegal drugs due to the country's long coastline and that many government officials and law enforcers themselves were involved in drug trade. 

Among the dead are suspected drug dealers and drug addicts, as well as people mistaken for such, including children killed by bullets intended for others. A report published by the World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT) in 2020 indicated that more than half of child killings documented between July 2016 and December 2019 occurred at the hands of the Police. In this regard, a human rights consequence is the damaging effect that de facto shoot-to-kill policies have on law enforcement, the rule of law, and accountability. 

In June 2021, the ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda concluded a preliminary exam and asked the judges of the Court for the authority to investigate crimes against humanity, torture, and other cruel treatments committed in the latest years in the Philippines during the war on drugs. Despite the Court's authorisation in September 2021, the Hague temporarily suspended the investigation in November at the Philippines request, which led to protests by human rights advocates and Filipino lawyers.

A NEW PRESIDENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

What will the election of Marcos Jr. mean in terms of the war on drugs? Will the new presidency change the pattern? During the electoral campaigns, both candidates expressed their intention to change some aspects of the methods used by former President Duterte. They both wished to de-emphasise what has been undoubtedly a brutal crackdown that has alienated a growing part of the population. 

In January 2022, the newly elected president stated that he would continue the war on drugs if elected. However, he also specified that his government would focus on going after drug lords instead of the small players. In addition, he said that he would focus on improving rehabilitation centres rather than treating addicts like criminals by increasing the number of rehabilitation facilities at the provincial level. 

According to him, it is the responsibility of the government to educate the youth on the dangerous effects of illegal drugs because the problem of drug addiction is, first and foremost, a health and social issue. Notwithstanding this seemingly softer approach, he made clear that he would not be keen to allow the ICC to intervene (especially because the country withdrew from the ratification of the Rome Statute in 2019). 

So, the question is: will this new tactic make the war on drugs more or less cruel for the Filipinos? Civil society fears the new president may further develop the death penalty bill for drug traffickers that has been approved in early 2019 but delayed by the Congress, and that the war will continue to be full of abuse and violence. 

Indeed, Ajeng Larasati, the human rights lead at Harm Reduction International (HRI), stated that they “are afraid for the lives of people who use drugs, their families, and already marginalised communities who have been disproportionately targeted by Duterte’s bloody campaign, and anyone who has been campaigning against the punitive drug laws in the country”. On the same page, Human Rights Watch Deputy Director for Asia, Phil Robertson called upon Marcos Jr. to enhance human rights in the country and indicated that “[h]e should declare an end to the ‘war on drugs’ that has resulted in the extrajudicial killing of thousands of Filipinos, and order the impartial investigation and appropriate prosecution of officials responsible for the these unlawful killings”.

LOOKING FORWARD

Given these considerations, what is the foreseeable scenario for the Philippines under Marcos Jr.’s mandate? We can expect the continuation of the vague, improvised strategy pursued by his predecessor in the last six years. Persistent democratic regression may remain. However, we could also see the success of new efforts to change Duterte’s program towards more progressive alternatives. The outcome will depend on the new president and its allies, as well as the exasperation of the Filipinos and their desire to claim their human rights and build a more democratic country. 

Anna Mattedi is a human rights professional with expertise in thematic areas such as fundamental freedoms, business and human rights, and digital rights. She has a strong interest in the Southeast and East Asian countries.

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