Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have expressed “deep concern” over the persecution of political activists in a letter to the president of Kazakhstan, published in October. They cite 242 cases of apparent state-sanctioned persecution of activists this year (as of 29 September) including arrests, abductions, fines, and criminal prosecutions. The reproach comes as authorities give rare permission for a rally demanding an end to politically-motivated persecution, suggesting there could be an openness to democratic reform in the current Kazakh regime.

“OLD MAN, GO AWAY”

In February 2019, a house fire that killed five children led to nationwide protests, as women called on the state to provide better housing and more social security for families. Within days of the protests starting, President Nursultan Nazarbayev dismissed his government before stepping down a month later himself after almost 30 years of autocratic rule. Although, the subsequent appointment of Nazarbayev’s longtime ally, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, as interim president did little to quell the protests, which had broadened to demand democratic reform.

Although his election was marred by “widespread irregularities and [the] arrest of peaceful protesters,” Tokayev has sought to present himself as a reformer. On his election, he admitted that some protesters had been arrested “by mistake” and called for their release. In his first State of the Nation Address, he pledged to reform protest laws to make peaceful protest easier and to decriminalise defamation, which had previously been used to imprison critics of the Nazarbayev regime.

Tokayev’s first year-and-a-half in office has mostly been a disappointment for reform-minded Kazakhs. Although defamation has been decriminalised, a person can still face up to 25 days in jail for the misdemeanour. Tokayev’s reformed protest law has also been criticised, with UN envoy Clement Nyaletsossi Voule calling it “overly restrictive”. Despite consistent protests, there appears to have been no let up on the persecution of political activists either.

PERSECUTION OF ACTIVISTS IN 2020

On the evening of 24 February 2020, Dulat Agadil—a human rights activist well-known within Kazakhstan—was arrested by police. By morning of the next day, the police reported that Agadil had “died of heart failure”. His family, however, believe that Agadil was murdered. His body showed multiple bruises and abrasions, indicating ill-treatment or torture while in police custody. Authorities have since quashed protests demanding an independent investigation into his death. Of the 242 cases cited by MEPs, over 200 are connected with protests related to the death of Agadil.

Similarly, the activists Amanbike Meirkhanova and Serik Orazov both died after confrontations with the police, with Orazov dying on his own doorstop as a police officer attempted to detain him. Torture remains pervasive as a tool used against those detained in police custody, according to the Coalition Against Torture.

Besides persecuting individuals, authorities have also targeted political groups. Members of the banned Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan Party and the “Koshe Partiyasy” (Street Party) have been prosecuted under article 405, 2, of the Criminal Code for “participation in an extremist organisation”. Police have violently broken up rallies organised by the parties.

The government of Kazakhstan has said it wants the country to become the “Singapore of the Steppes”—a futuristic financial hub with a carefully managed democracy. Although, as with many of the former Soviet republics, the transition to capitalism has brought wide income inequality. Resentment at pervasive corruption and the collusion between government and the oligarchs, who own the country’s once state-run enterprises, has grown. This resentment will continue to grow as the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic worsens unemployment and poverty among the poorest Kazakhs.

Tokayev is mindful that his predecessor’s semi-retirement followed protests at social conditions. His worry will be that economic dissatisfaction will translate into political unrest, which will upset his ambition to make Kazakhstan the region’s Singapore. The persecution of political activists can be seen as an attempt to prevent such an upset. However, this is misguided. Appetite for political reform has only increased since his predecessor stepped down. Repression proved to be a failure in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan and is failing in Belarus. Tokayev would be better served by following through on his promise to allow for more peaceful protest, to increase representation in the Kazakh parliament beyond the six government-approved parties currently allowed, and to end the persecution of political activists. Such a move would ensure that Kazakhs have the ability to air their grievances peacefully rather than being compelled to resort to violence. It would also help Kazakhstan’s economic situation by encouraging foreign investors.

Samuel is a trainee solicitor and postgraduate at Cardiff University. He is active in several U.K.-based organisations campaigning on behalf of Hong Kong and BNOs. His research interests include transitional justice and the rule of law.

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