The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenka, now faces greater resistance than ever after the presidential election in early August. After 26 years in office and several controversial elections, this is not the first time the President has made headlines, and there has long been resistance to his presidency. This time, however, might be different. 

There seems to be a consensus that something has changed. The weeks and months before the election in August had a different context than the previous ones: the opposition, now led by three women, came together and formed a new wave filled with expectations of change in the country. They spoke on stages in front of rallies, they mobilized new hope for improvement and free and fair elections, and they made the population realize that they had grown tired of Lukashenka and the restrictions he has put in place.  

According to an independent monitoring group, Svetlana Tikhanouskaya, who stood in for her husband as an opposition candidate after he was jailed, should have won in at least 80 polling stations. She has now fled to Lithuania with her children. Two other opposition candidates, Maria Kolesnikova and Maxim Znak, have been taken into Belarusian custody by masked men, meaning only one of the biggest opposition leaders has not yet been either jailed or forced to leave Belarus.

INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION BY ALLIES, RUSSIA, THE EU

Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko’s close friend and ally, has ramped up the stakes by declaring that he is ready to deploy troops if the riots become more aggressive. Many political analysts expected this, since the countries have a strong, historical bond, and the threat of loss of control in Belarus can be described as Putin’s worst nightmare. The threat of violence, however, is misguided. The protests in Belarus are mostly peaceful, neutral towards both Russia and the EU, and widespread among the population. The protesters seek independence and self-sufficiency.

However, there are some calls by protestors to the international community to help. The relationship with the EU has, and will most certainly continue to be, fairly uncertain. The EU has chosen to reject the election result and vowed for quick sanctions. Angela Merkel said that there was no doubt in the EU that “there were massive violations of procedure at the elections”.  

The EU has also decided to tie its financial aid to civil society rather than the Belarusian state, which caused Lukashenka to claim that the EU is financing the revolution. The Belarusian defense minister then accused the West of waging a “hybrid war against the Belarusian state” for applying unprecedented diplomatic, political, and economic pressure. 

Putin’s fight against a Russian or Belarusian version of the Arabic Spring might not be completely misguided. Lukashenka suggested in interviews with Russian media outlets that Russia would be next if his regime falls in the face of a wave of mass protests. This is probably a strategy to engage pro-Russian Belarusians, as well as Putin himself. 

POTENTIAL OUTCOME

Tikhanouskaya has urged the UN to act with international sanctions and stop the President’s “blatant human rights violations and cynical disregard for human dignity”. She also called upon the Human Rights Commission to hold a special session on the human rights situation in Belarus as well as asked for an international, objective, monitoring mission to investigate the situation.

However, there seems to be little evidence that either the UN or the EU will demand Lukashenka step down. This may be because the relationship between the EU and Belarus still seems unclear; or, the EU may simply not want to risk having a military confrontation with Russia over a small dictatorship in the outskirts of Europe.

In the face of the long-lasting demonstrations in both the capital and smaller cities, the question becomes whether this will be enough to create change. With dragged out, pro-democratic protests around the world such as in Chile and Hong Kong, perhaps the biggest fear in Belarus is that all this effort will go to waste. 

How long will the people have to protest, and what will be the outcome? What is clear, at least, is that this election will prove what Belarus and its political freedom is worth – politically and strategically – to the West, the East, and to Belarusians themselves. 

Isabella is currently an intern at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs on Global Politics and Security. She holds a Political Science degree and is currently studying a Masters in Human Rights at Uppsala University in Sweden. She focuses on women’s rights, security issues, and human rights abuses.

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