Africa’s longest river is over 6,650 kilometres long with a drainage basin that covers 11 countries. The Nile is the primary water source of Egypt and Sudan, so it comes as no surprise that major tensions arise when this supply is threatened.

Since 2011, Ethiopia has undertaken a major flagship project in the Blue Nile—one of the Nile’s main tributaries. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. The 4.4 billion dollar dam aims to relieve Ethiopia’s acute energy shortage, as it is expected to generate more than six GW of electricity, enabling Ethiopia to fully satisfy its own energy needs and become a major energy exporter. The dam is also expected to transform Ethiopia into a major power hub, driving unprecedented economic development in the nation. The project began construction ten years ago and is already more than 75% complete, having started with the filling of the reservoir last summer. 

THE THREAT OF THE GERD

 Sudan and Egypt fear the possible consequences of such a project. The Nile is one of the few rivers in the world that run from south to north, meaning that developments produced in Ethiopia may affect the Nile’s flow in northern countries. Alternatively, downstream countries rely on the Nile for drinking water and for agriculture. As such, these countries may experience reduced soil fertility and increasing salinisation of farmland when the dam starts to hold back sediments and the freshwater flows are reduced after its construction, thereby seriously affecting their agricultural potential. 

Egypt already suffers from water shortage, with an annual water deficit of around seven billion cubic metres, and is heading towards absolute water scarcity. It relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its water and fears that the dam in Ethiopia will exacerbate the situation. Sudan, on the other hand, may benefit from the dam, as it may help regulate flooding and enable the country to benefit from cheaper electricity. However, an uncoordinated flow from the GERD may overwhelm Sudan’s own dams. 

NEGOTIATIONS AND DISAGREEMENT

Tensions between these countries have intensified since Ethiopia began filling the reservoir last summer. Egypt and Sudan require a legally binding agreement on how long it will take to fill the dam and how it will be operated, but Ethiopia is evading this, prefering to provide a set of guidelines instead. Despite years of negotiations, they are yet to reach an agreement. The last negotiation took place in Kinshasa, between the 4 and 5 of April 2021, and failed again. The three countries disagree on essential issues relating to the amount of water Ethiopia will release in times of drought (and for that matter, there is no agreement either on what will classify as drought) and on how they will resolve disputes.

Egypt’s main worry is how quickly Ethiopia will fill its reservoirs. According to estimates carried out by Al Jazeera LABS, if Ethiopia fills its reservoirs over the next ten years, Egypt’s water supply will be cut by 14%, with 18% of its farmland being destroyed. If it is filled over the next seven years, 33% of its farmland will be destroyed. Finally, if it were to be filled in five years, 50% of Egypt’s farmland would be destroyed. In any case, Egypt’s river delta will be deeply affected. 

During the last round of negotiations, Ethiopia rejected a number of proposals set forward by the Egyptian and Sudanese representatives regarding the inclusion of international mediators in the negotiations. According to Ahmed Hafez, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, these rejections from Ethiopia’s side betrays its “lack of political interest to negotiate in good faith”.

LOOKING FORWARD

As construction starts to come to an end, and the filling of the reservoir is set to continue as scheduled, tensions are on the rise once more. In fact, Egypt’s President stated that there would be “inconceivable instability in the region” if Egypt’s water supplies were affected by the dam. Nevertheless, there is still hope. On the 13 of April, Sudan’s Prime Minister invited Egypt and Ethiopia to continue negotiations behind closed doors. We can only hope that this time an agreement will be reached.

Eugenia is an undergraduate Law student at the University of Valencia. Her interests revolve around human rights issues, international conflicts and geopolitics, and sustainability.