The Rohingya, a stateless ethnic group from Rakhine State, has been described as one of the most persecuted minorities in the world. They have experienced violations to their freedom of movement and social, political and economic rights, as well as enduring inhumane acts committed by the Myanmar military including widespread killings, burning of villages, rape and other forms of sexual violence. Flash reports conducted by the UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner, as well as non-governmental organisations like Amnesty International and Médecins Sans Frontières have exposed the distressing horrors of the ongoing genocide. Since August 2017 more than 742,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, and an estimated 200,000 had fled years before. 

This humanitarian crisis can be examined through the lens of climate change, and it is important to do so. Research has shown a link between environmental conditions, and both social and armed conflict. In fact, “policies of systematic ethnic-cleansing are the leading driver of communal violence [and] the destabilising effect of climate change acts as a threat multiplier.” Vulnerable communities, such as the Rohingya, will become increasingly more endangered and risk becoming further marginalised as climate change continues to alter existing environments. As cross-border displacement continues to occur between Myanmar and Bangladesh, environmentally-rooted risks threaten the Rohingya in Bangladesh also. Cox’s Bazar, the world’s largest refugee settlement, is an area vulnerable to cyclones, flooding, and landslides - issues which further risk the displacement of Rohingya families.

DAMAGE BY CYCLONE NARGIS EXACERBATED BY MILITARY JUNTA

The 2020 Global Climate Risk Index states that Myanmar has experienced the highest weather-related losses in the past two decades, and that it is one of the most vulnerable countries at risk to environmentally-rooted hazards. Consequences of climate change can be witnessed across the world but in Myanmar, the effects of the climate crisis are clear - exhibited in severe flooding and the disastrous 2008 Cyclone Nargis. Myanmar’s topography, economy, and developmental position will further perpetuate these natural disasters.  

In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis moved through the Irrawaddy Delta causing huge devastation to Myanmar. It resulted in approximately 140,000 deaths with over 55,000 missing, and left about 2.5 million homeless. Then ruled by a military junta, Myanmar was not ready for the magnitude of the storm and the devastation it left in its wake. Not only did the state lack a weather radar network, but it also had no early warning system, storm shelters, or evacuation plans. Further to this, the self-determining government blocked international workers from providing aid for four days following, which potentially increased the human death toll. 

Though government suppression was largely responsible for the massive damage caused, it is important to note that in their attempt to constrain the military junta, Western governments were unable to encourage economic reform, nourish social services, or support disaster prevention. Two decades of aid restrictions certainly impacted how Myanmar was able to respond to the disaster. Regardless, it was hoped that Cyclone Nargis would act as a catalyst for some form of change. Due to its inefficiency in handling the crisis, the legitimacy of the military junta disintegrated. A referendum was arranged which approved a new constitution. Then, following a general election in 2010, the military junta was dissolved in 2011 and a nominally civilian government was established. It was expected that this move to democracy would alter the Rohingya’s situation, however, the 2011 Annual Report of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) noted that “Muslims in Rakhine State [...] continued to experience the most severe forms of legal, economic, religious, educational and social discrimination.” The upsurge of violence against the Rohingya was preceded by policies of “opening up” in 2011. This policy occurred due to Myanmar’s rapid economic growth - the economy grew at 6.5 percent in 2012/13. This affected the management and distribution of farmland, which privileged the middle-class and further isolated the Rohingya. 

BANGLADESH IS STRUGGLING TO ACCOMMODATE ROHINGYA

Such systematic discrimination has forced the Rohingya people into Bangladesh for decades. Bangladesh is densely populated and like Myanmar, faces its own climate-induced threats - largely due to being situated at the head of the Bay of Bengal and the largest river delta on the planet. The Ganges Delta is an unstable and wild environment. Melting glaciers in the Himalayas push water up the delta’s rivers and cause flooding; strong cyclones and storm surges occur, and one-quarter of Bangladesh is less than seven feet above sea level, which pushes saltwater into coastal agriculture areas. Additionally, coastal erosion threatens Bangladesh’s agriculture-based economy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that Bangladesh will lose 30 percent of food production by 2050, which along with the mass movement of Rohingya refugees, will cause increased strain on government social services. 

COX’S BAZAR WILL BE THE WORST-HIT AREA IN SOUTH ASIA BY 2050

There are approximately 745,000 Rohingya, including more than 400,000 children in Cox’s Bazar - an area of land between Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal. The camp now spreads across 3,500 acres, which represents a loss of 1.67 percent in the forest area of Cox’s Bazar and a loss of 0.05 percent of the total national forest area. This is caused by the clearing of the land for the settlement in addition to the fact that over 95 percent of the refugees gather fuelwood from the forests nearby. Land degradation is incredibly dangerous. Not only does it decrease the amount of vital resources available, the removal of tree roots decreases the already unstable structure of the soft soil hills - increasing the threat of landslides. Overcrowding advances land degradation. Additionally, the decreasing forest areas could give rise to social conflict between the Rohingya and the Bangladeshi nationals if not managed.

The Rohingya have a considerable effect on water reserves in the area, causing groundwater depletion and contamination. Shallow tube wells which pump water were set up quickly with little accuracy. Waste from latrines overflows causing contamination; the World Health Organisation collected groundwater samples from various Rohingya camps and found that 70 percent of the samples were polluted by E. coli. 

In addition to groundwater depletion, a report by the World Bank states that “since Cox’s Bazar lags behind the national average in key development indicators such as education, access to electricity, water availability, market access and has a greater share of agricultural households, it may therefore become more vulnerable to the effects of temperature rise.” Living standards in the area could fall by 20 percent by 2050, making Cox’s Bazar the worst affected area in South Asia as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns become more disruptive, threatening the lives of the Rohingya refugees even more. 

Climate change presents a threat to political and social stability, especially in already fragile states like Myanmar and Bangladesh. Environmental changes put pressure on financial and natural resources, obstructing a government’s ability to maintain power and prevent conflict. Overcrowding, land degradation and groundwater depletion in Cox’s Bazar risks generating social conflict between the Rohingya and Bangladeshi nationals. This endangers the safety of the Rohingya as Bangladesh is not party to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol, or party to the Statelessness Conventions of 1954 and 1961. The lack of a national legal and administrative framework for refugees leaves them unprotected. 

The Rohingya crisis exemplifies how climate change can threaten the most marginalised and the most vulnerable and examining it through an environmental lens, as opposed to a purely humanitarian one, demonstrates the relationship between climate change and conflict. Beyond climate change though, it could potentially give rise to violence, trafficking and radicalisation. This crisis is a global crisis - it must be resolved soon and requires lasting solutions for the Rohingya people.

This article was published by Earth Refuge as part of our January 2021 collaboration with E&U for the Climate and Human Rights Pulse on Environmental Justice and Human Rights.

Emma has a Master's degree in International Relations (Terrorism and Political Violence) from the University of Birmingham. She has a specific interest in the international order, specifically geopolitics and the importance of multilateralism to rising global challenges such as refugee crises and international human rights. She is pursuing a career in international relations and research.