Please note this article covers events up to July 22, 2021.

The 20-year war has nearly ended. The Biden administration announced in July that U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan by the 31 August 2021. President Biden’s announcement comes with justifiable criticism of the American presence in Afghanistan, and how the U.S. and her allies could never achieve goals of turning Afghanistan into a democracy. However, the costs of the abrupt exit could be catastrophic for a nation that has already spent decades consumed by waging war.

There are notable similarities between the American exit and the Soviets departing in the late 1980s. Just as the Soviets left Afghanistan’s government on the brink of collapse or surrender from the Mujahideen assault, the U.S. may well leave Afghanistan worse off than when they arrived under the pretense of democracy. The hopeful outcome seems to be an intensification of the already adverse civil war, as the Taliban presses the international departure towards their advantage. The Afghanistan government, already debilitated, is likely to collapse. Any chance of a peace accord is depressing and unfeasible. Taliban spokesman, Mr Shaheen, referred to Afghanistan as the “Islamic Emirate,” a strong indication that the group envisions some form of theocracy and is very unlikely to participate in any democratic process.

THE AFTERMATH OF NEARLY TWO DECADES OF WAR: A DESOLATE OUTCOME

The more likely scenario sees the Taliban using battlefield victories to topple the already feeble government and move on to capturing cities instead of congregating in the southern provinces, as we have seen when NATO forces ended combat in 2014, leaving the Taliban to gain momentum and actively spread across 70% of the country by 2018. Either way, it is likely that a country of around 39 million people will see much more bloodshed and destruction to come. If history is to be believed, America's departure could mean a curtailment of international funds; this reduction in aid will be calamitous for the already buckling health care, education sector, and NGOs.

Worryingly, local interests may take a backseat as the neopatrimonial system of the country suffers from a substantial lack of financial aid, leading to shifting loyalties towards pro-Taliban elements.

Afghan lives are sure to take a massive hit as America and her NATO allies depart from the country. It is a credible assumption by many that the full and unconditional withdrawal can be translated to mean a lack of  American influence. Afghanistan, soon to be devoid of Western influence, could suffer an influx of attacks on civilian casualties as violence escalates at an alarming rate. On the ground, reports indicate that civilians are preparing for an increase in violence. Irrespective of policy justifications from the U.S., it is clear that the war is about to get much worse for the people of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is about to face a desolate outcome from the departure. The Taliban is unlikely to establish any form of electoral process, and reports suggest they may embrace a working model similar to that of Iran, with a supreme religious council acting as the strongest actor in the administrative and political spheres. The deterioration of democratic processes, civil rights and humanitarian prospects are losses that are sure to follow suit. The U.S. military invasion in Afghanistan has failed, and with the departure of her troops, the Biden administration leaves behind a country that has undergone decades of war, on the brink of collapse.

Joyce is currently a 2nd-year student at the University of Manchester, pursuing an LLB. She is keenly invested in the documentation of Human Rights issues, with a specific interest in the rule of law, constitutional law, and transitional justice.

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