Less than two years after winning the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must brace for civil war within his own country. Conflict between national forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of northern Ethiopia has reached dangerous levels as Ahmed has declared war on the contentious and powerful group. The heightened risk of conflict could potentially spread to other armed ethnic groups and destabilise the fragile Horn of Africa, consisting of neighboring Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan.  

THE INFLUENCE OF THE TPLF

The influential political group, the TPLF, have dominated the multi-ethnic ruling alliance of the Ethiopian government for over three decades. Their military prowess was employed in the 1998-2000 territorial conflict with Eritrea, which the Tigray region directly borders. It was the peace settlement of this very war which would win Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize.   

Ethiopia’s political-ethnic structure represents the major groups of the country, including the Oromo, Amhara, and southern Ethiopian peoples. The northern Tigray region houses approximately  six percent of the total population. The rise to power of Oromo Abiy Ahmed in 2018 threatened TPLF influence, dissolving their ruling coalition. The TPLF have a long-standing tradition of resistance and rebellion against the federal government, contributing to the present-day ethnic-sectarian division, which is underlain by their experience of resisting former regimes and their enhanced military capacity. 

UNEASY BEDFELLOWS: THE AHMED ADMINISTRATION AND THE TPLF

The TPLF is said to have “[led] Ethiopia with an iron fist” by exiling opposition parties and jailing activists for criticising the government via social media. The sweeping democratic reforms made by Abiy Ahmed from 2018 reflected promises of a transformational future for a country previously steeped in corruption and authoritarianism. The Oromo ethnic groups were major forces behind the political revolution—leading protests against the government on the basis of historical grievances. Ahmed famously employed human rights jurists to revamp many of the draconian laws existing at the time—many that had been weaponised to crackdown on dissent—and invited exiled opposition parties back to Ethiopia.

Multiple conflicts embittered the relationship between the Ahmed-led Prosperity Party (EPRDF) and the TPLF. Tigray leaders have complained of being unfairly targeted by the Ahmed administration for multiple charges of corruption, with many dismissed from their positions and other high-ranking political figures arrested, and have further claimed that they were scapegoated. Commentators have noted that even Ahmed’s popular political movement spread divisive rhetoric around TPLF, seemingly attacking the entire Tigrayan population on ethnic lines and worsening the ideological divide between the parties. 

Despite nationwide postponement of polls due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the TPLF hosted independent elections in September 2020, which Ahmed declared unlawful. When the TPLF refused to acknowledge his regime, the Ahmed administration reduced funding to the Tigray region in response. The TPLF declared the action tantamount to an act of war. They have also claimed that Eritrean militias have attacked multiple parts of the Tigray region and believe this reflects cooperation between Isaias Afwerki, the Eritrean president, and the Ahmed administration.  

In response to a supposed TPLF attack on a federal military defence base in the north, the Ahmed administration justified its deployment of the Ethiopian national military against the region as a necessary measure due to the TPLF having forced a military confrontation. The TPLF is now regarded as a criminal junta, with any peace negotiations depending on unconditional military surrender. The TPLF, on the other hand, categorically denies responsibility, citing their constitutional right to self-governance and administration. Air raids have already been carried out on multiple Tigray military assets, with casualties being reported on both sides. The TPLF has also initiated airstrikes against Eritrean forces, potentially spreading the conflict across international borders and creating mass instability in the region. The guiding objective on the part of the Ahmed administration is ostensibly to remove the present TPLF leadership from power and instate a federal-appointed government in the Tigray region instead. 

THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE HOSTILITIES

With a population of 109 million, Ethiopia has over five times the civilian population of Syria. Any sectarian civil war occurring as a result of political machinations would devastate international peace and security and trigger an enormous humanitarian crisis. Communication lines have been interrupted since the initiation of hostilities, including internet and phone lines, justified by the federal government on the basis that these are a necessary, temporary means of hindering their opponents’ capacity to retaliate.

Around 25,000 Tigrayans have already fled to neighboring Sudan and have experienced grave casualties due to the air raids. The Sudanese border camps have them living in inhumane and degrading conditions, often lacking water and sanitation facilities. Thousands remain displaced and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reports escalating violence against civilians by armed militias. Amnesty International reports that hundreds of Tigrayans were subject to a particularly vicious attack on 9 November 2020, which included the use of machetes, axes, and knives. Tigrayans themselves share how mass looting has caused food shortages. 

Multiple ethnic groups across Ethiopia face insecurity due to historical grievances (such as territorial disputes), reasonably amounting to a fear of genocide. The prospect of their taking on armed military action—inspired by the TPLF—could have a devastating ripple effect, highlighted by the presence of militias within the Amhara and Oromo regions. Reports of ethnic violence, including summary executions and extrajudicial killings, are weekly occurrences. 

International humanitarian groups have urged a cessation of hostilities, ceasefire, and immediate halting of the airstrikes, as well as opening of communication lines and access of the besieged Tigrayan population to humanitarian aid. 

Transitional justice literature demonstrates how the experiences of human rights violations precipitate communal and ethnic violence, and the crucial need to work together in this regard. The unfolding conflict in Ethiopia is indicative of deeply grave and entrenched challenges underlying Ethiopian political institutions that must be openly and transparently addressed via cooperative national dialogue. This is necessary in order to resolve the highly polarised political space and initiate a national reconciliation process. 

Pallavi is a student at the University of Vienna, currently completing her Master of Arts in Human Rights. She has extensive experience in the fields of education, women's rights, community organization and development, and aims to channelize her research interests towards actionable change for vulnerable and marginalized populations.

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