Wearing masks and raising three fingers, thousands of protesters have been gathering in the Thai capital, Bangkok, over the past three months to demand democratic reform. On Saturday 19 September 2020, tens of thousands gathered outside the Grand Palace in the biggest anti-government demonstration since the coup in 2014, when the army seized power. The military has refrained from cracking down on protesters so far, but the leadership has adopted an increasingly hostile stance: the police have arrested prominent activists and harassed student protesters.
THE 2014 COUP & THE 2019 ELECTION
In a little over a century, Thailand has had 13 successful and 9 unsuccessful coups. The latest coup in 2014 saw the overthrow of the elected prime minister, the suspension and then replacement of the country’s constitution, and the introduction of 250 army-appointed senators to the legislature. Since then, hundreds of pro-democracy dissidents have been prosecuted for “sedition, computer-related crimes, and lese majeste (insulting the monarchy)”, according to Human Rights Watch.
Following sustained international and domestic pressure, the army leadership allowed a return to “free” elections in 2019. Despite coming second, the incumbent General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who staged the coup in 2014, was reconfirmed as Prime Minister with the backing of the 250 army senators. Widespread discontent with the pace of democratic reforms under Prayuth’s Government grew after authorities banned the Future Forward Party (FFP), a party critical of the army and then third largest in the Thai legislature. The subsequent decision by the Constitutional Court to dissolve the FFP in early 2020 lead to large-scale protests, as FFP supporters (mainly students) viewed the court’s decision as political. Although protests waned as Thailand entered a nationwide lockdown due to coronavirus, protesters have come back onto the streets as the country emerges from lockdown.
THE CURRENT PROTESTS
On 19 July 2020, during a protest at Bangkok’s Democracy Monument, members of the Free Youth Group—a loose coalition of university student associations—issued three demands:
(1) dissolution of the military-dominated legislature;
(2) rewriting of the 2017 Constitution; and
(3) and an end to the harassment of the regime’s opponents.
Protesters have also begun to raise criticism of Thailand’s most hallowed institution: the monarchy. On 20 September 2020, protesters delivered a petition to the King’s official residence, demanding cuts to both royal power and the royal budget. Many have been angered by the King’s long absences from the country during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic (the King lives mostly in Germany) and by his appropriation of royal property formerly held by the Crown Property Bureau, which had held the property on trust for the monarchy as an institution, not for any individual monarch.
General Prayuth will be well aware that widespread anti-government protests preceded the coup in 2014 that brought him to power. In an indication of his concern about the protests, the legislature was scheduled to vote on amendments to the constitution on 23 September 2020. This has now been postposed, purportedly to set up a commission to consider constitutional reform, although protesters and opposition politicians have seen it as a delaying tactic.
WAY FORWARD
The Thai economy shrank by 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 according to the Office of National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Discontent with the government’s failure to protect livelihoods, made worse by the King’s appropriation of state assets, may see more of Thailand’s poor and middle class join the (so far) student-driven protests. The Thai leadership has an opportunity to address the demands of protesters now, before that happens. Setting out a timetable of constitutional reform, with consultation from all political parties, would be a good first step. The leadership should avoid a Hong Kong-style crackdown as this will only harden the protesters’ resolve, and lead to international condemnation and possibly economic sanctions. That, certainly, would not help anyone.
Samuel is a trainee solicitor and postgraduate at Cardiff University. He is active in several U.K.-based organisations campaigning on behalf of Hong Kong and BNOs. His research interests include transitional justice and the rule of law.