Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming increasingly dirty. According to various reports, Russia seems to have used cluster munitions in its attempt to break the Ukrainian resistance. Cluster munitions are outlawed weapons under international law because they are particularly harmful to civilians.
The Russian army probably underestimated the Ukrainian response to its invasion. Many expected a quick conquest by Russian troops. However, given the size of the Ukrainian military and their professionalisation since the outbreak of the war in the Donbas, military analysts predicted that this would turn out not to be easy for the Russian troops.
Since the beginning of the invasion, military experts have not fully agreed on what exactly Putin's strategy is, as the Russian military appears not to have acted in a way that it is capable of, especially considering that this is a full-scale invasion. So far, however, Putin has not achieved his military goals. He now desperately needs a success. Internationally, Russia is increasingly isolated, alliances that were almost thought to be dead, such as NATO or the EU, seem reawakened and more united, and the Russian economy will suffer a massive hit due to the sanctions.
Above all, the Russian armed forces have faced difficulties in conquering the big cities, yet they have by no means exhausted all their resources either. It may have been part of Russia's strategy to initially avoid the larger cities, with the exception of trying to take over Kyiv quickly, in order to prevent greater destruction and avoid a prolonged war of attrition with a high cost in human lives on both sides.
Furthermore, the morale of Russian troops in the fight against a "brother nation" seems to be low and in this regard, Putin overestimated himself in the information war. He surely sensed that the war would be unpopular at home. That is why in Russia, over the past years, he has eliminated opponents of the regime, restricted freedom of the press, and massively obstructed civil society. Meanwhile, President Zelensky is rising to the status of a national hero in Ukraine. He motivates his army and his compatriots and seems willing to sacrifice his own life. Unlike Putin, he is in the middle of the action which boosts his troops´ morale.
As things are not going as well as Russia may have hoped, their strategy will now change and as the pressure on Putin mounts, it makes him even more dangerous. The use of nuclear weapons is still unlikely, but their potential threat still hangs in the air. For the time being, therefore, the Russian army will most likely resort to tactics that have already proved successful in Syria and in the Chechen war namely, to cause great destruction through mass shelling and bombardment. The war is thus becoming uglier, with the threat of a huge humanitarian catastrophe being ever more likely.
CONTROVERSIAL WEAPONS: THERMOBARIC MISSILES
One way to achieve Russia´s goal may be the increased use of weapons that are outlawed under international law, or that are at least controversial. CNN reporter Frederik Pleitgen posted a video on Twitter on February 26, 2022, showing a TOS-1 Buratino flame-thrower system being transported from the Russian city of Belgorod towards Ukraine. Belgorod is located about 80 kilometres from the heavily contested Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
TOS-1 Buratino is a multiple rocket launcher that fires thermobaric missiles. These weapons release a chemical after impact that ignites the surrounding air and the resulting fire removes oxygen from the air, creating a vacuum that has extreme destructive power and kills indiscriminately. Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, accuses Russia of having already used such a weapon in the current war.
OUTLAWED WEAPONS: CLUSTER MUNITIONS
Furthermore, human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International criticise Russia for using cluster munitions. The investigative research network Bellingcat has already documented deployments of munitions by Russian troops which seem to be cluster munitions. To do so, they have primarily analysed images and videos from social media.
Cluster munitions are conventional weapons systems that can be used to attack large areas and destroy targets. They are dropped from aircrafts or launched from the ground, in the process, smaller explosive devices – so-called submunitions – are dispersed over large areas. This desired effect, however, is precisely the problem. Cluster munitions do not have pinpoint accuracy or precision, so they cause widespread destruction and are extremely lethal. In addition, these weapons have a very high dud rate. Many submunitions do not explode directly, they then lie or get stuck in the ground and continue to pose a danger to civilians for years after the end of the hostilities, similar to landmines.
In 2008, after years of negotiations, more than 100 countries agreed to ban cluster munitions because of its devastating humanitarian consequences. Through the Convention on Cluster Munitions, the use of these weapons is prohibited in these countries, however, some countries such as the United States, Russia, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan did not participate in the negotiations and have not signed the treaty. This also includes Ukraine. However, the stigmatisation of these weapons sent a signal that even the countries who did not sign could not escape, and their use to date has been correspondingly rare.
RUSSIAN CLUSTER MUNITION USE
According to Human Rights Watch, Russia has made use of cluster munitions in the Syrian war, and these weapons were also used in the war over the Ukrainian Donbas in 2014 and 2015, by both the Ukrainian and Russian military. Now the evidence is growing that Russia has also used cluster munitions in the current war.
Bellingcat documented several attacks by Russian forces with munitions that appear to be cluster munitions, including in Kharkiv. The eastern Ukrainian city, with a population of one and a half million, is not far from the border with Russia and is currently a focal point for the fighting. According to Bellingcat, there have probably already been several deployments of cluster munitions there. They suspect that the Russian army has fired cluster munitions from BM 27 and BM 30 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). The cluster bombs used consist of a rocket motor and a cargo warhead from which the submunitions are dispensed. The rocket motor and cargo warhead continue to fly after their release, ultimately drilling into the ground on impact. Several photos of these warheads sticking in the ground exist, as Bellingcat shows, providing evidence of likely use of such cluster munitions.
Human Rights Watch also accused Russia of an attack with cluster munitions in the immediate vicinity of a hospital in the town of Vuhledar as early as February 24, 2022. This killed four civilians and wounded ten others.
Furthermore, the town of Okhtyrka, 100 kilometers west of Kharkiv, has been bombed with cluster munitions according to Amnesty International. The attack also hit a nearby kindergarten on February 25, 2022, resulting in numerous deaths, including one child.
HUMANITARIAN COSTS
The humanitarian consequences of the remnants of war are high. Countries like Lebanon, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq had to deal for years with the remains of cluster munitions. In Laos for example, large areas are still contaminated with unexploded ordnances, and accidents continue to occur. Much too often, people are unaware that these ordinances pose a serious threat to their lives.
The use of controversial weapons like cluster munitions or thermobaric weapons in Ukraine, especially in urban areas, would result in many civilian casualties and could be considered as a war crime.
Even if Russia is formally not subject to the Convention on Cluster Munition, the use of these weapons violates the Geneva Conventions, as it heavily affects the civilian population. Many civilians will pay the price for their use, even when the war has ended.
Jan Schulz is a social anthropologist and works as a consultant in the development aid sector, focusing on land rights and conflict sensitivity. He has been active in various NGO-campaigns for peace and disarmament, as well as on human rights violations and environmental crimes.