VISION OF A PEACEFUL AND SECURE AFRICA
With the African Union (AU) meeting this month for its 33rd national summit in Addis Ababa, is time to see if they have lived up to the goal of “silencing the guns”.
The summit was held under the AU’s theme for the year 2020: “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conductive Conditions for Africa’s Development”. The Silencing the Guns-initiative is a commitment to achieve the Aspirations of Africa’s Agenda 2063, specifically Aspiration 4, which envisions a peaceful and secure Africa, making peace a reality for the African people.
The theme “Silencing the Guns” was an aspiration founded in 2013 and throughout Africa there was made a promise to end war and genocide on the African continent by 2020. The goal also included to lessen conflict and violence to create a path to peace and prosperity.
This was to say, at least, very noble goals. The AU set the bar very high, which could get one to presume that the goal was normative rather than realistic in its formulation. As we pass the finish line in 2020, it is high time to contemplate on the current state of commitment to a peaceful, violence-free future on the African continent.
HAS VIOLENCE DECREASED?
Apart from setting out noble goals, the AU has spoken out against coups, helped mediate in peace processes between civilian and military leaders, and made notable interventions in two major crises in 2019, in Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR). The AU has however also asserted its struggle to respond to rigged elections, widespread violence by insurgent groups, and leaders’ suppressive manoeuvres to stay in power.
When looking at the statistics, it shows dualistic results. On a more positive note, the number of deaths in battles has decreased, and ceasefire data suggests that there is proof of a higher level of dialogue and attempts to solve conflicts. However, there has been an increase in the total number of conflicts on the African continent in the last decade. The number of civil wars in 2018 was in fact the highest since 1946. Many countries in Africa further struggle with parallel conflicts, facing non-state violence, one-sided violence, or state-based conflicts at the same time. The AU chair actually described the continent as “hampered by terrorism, intercommunal conflict, and pre- and post-election crises”.
The increase in number comes from the surge in non-state conflict between two or more organised groups, neither related to the state. These types of conflicts have increased dramatically over the last six to seven years. The number of non-state conflicts reached 50 in 2017, compared to 24 in 2011. The increased number of deaths mainly originate from escalation of violence between groups in Nigeria, DR Congo, and Mali. Africa is in fact the continent with the highest number of non-state conflict.
The AU commission chairman warned that some member states even faced collapse. After reports of more than 4000 deaths last year in the Sahel, fears of the region sliding into violent chaos has risen. According to UN figures, the number of attacks have increased fivefold in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger since 2016. The increase of violence in Sahel has been proved a breeding ground for Islamic terrorist groups, with many of the recent attacks having been attributed to the ISIS affiliate, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).
“SILENCING THE GUNS”
“Silencing the guns” included aims of decreasing the number of small arms in circulation, since small arms and light weapons often are violence multipliers contributing to prolonged conflicts and illicit trade. Initiative 5 in the Agenda 2063 for Africa, envisages a total ceasefire in Africa. This was incorporated in the goal for 2020.
The numbers are unfortunately pointing the other direction. According to the 2019 Small Arms Survey, about 35 million registered small weapons are currently in circulation on the continent. In South Africa alone, the next country to chair the AU, at least 23 people are killed each day only through small arms.
Small arms proliferation in Africa is difficult to stop because of the African countries porous borders. Arms proliferation can be linked to the increase in conflict between borders where conflicts frequently seems to follow the flow of arms. An example is the fragile state in Libya and in DR Congo due to power-vacuum aided proliferation, with much of the weapons coming from the middle east into Libya and spreading south through DR Congo.
Some solutions to beat illicit arms trade of small weapons that has been attempted include temporarily closing the borders and establishing amnesty for weapons owners. Gun amnesty was attempted for a fourth time in December 2019 in South Africa due to positive results in the first three rounds, where over 100,000 firearms and 1.8 million rounds of munitions was handed over to authorities. This might be a smart way forward for the African continent to beat the arms proliferation goals of “Silencing the Guns”.
WHAT IS THE WAY FORWARD FOR AFRICA’S AGENDA 2063?
Except ending violence, war and genocide, the goals of the AU has focused on commitment from African leaders. The summit provided an opportunity for AU to make a cohesive statement on the future of the continent.
However, the commitment seems fragile. Contrary to the expected commitment, it was decided to delay financing security operations until 2023 due to lack of funds. Some of the continents leaders even seem to be wanting to restrain the continental body’s peace and security role. Commitment to multilateral or diplomatic efforts to tame conflicts on the continent seems to have dwindled.
“African solutions to African problems” was promised by African Union Commission chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat. But, as the continent is the fastest growing, with numbers pointing towards 60% of the world’s population living in African countries by 2050, and commitment seems to be decreasing, it seems as though the stakes are higher than originally thought.
With elections coming up in Ethiopia, and Somalia, and in the organisational structure of the AU itself, as well as peace processes needing pivotal support in Burkina Faso, South Sudan, CAR, Mali, Cameroon, and Sudan, the AU needs to seek a compromise with the UN over co-funding of peace operations as well as acting as a guarantor of mediation efforts and brokered deals. The goals of “Silencing the Guns” in Africa needs much more support to be realised.
Isabella is Masters student of human rights at Uppsala University in Sweden. She focuses on women’s rights, as well as humanitarian and conflict studies.