The future of Libya up for negotiation at Berlin Summit, but what’s next?

The conflict, the instability, and the institutional divisions, together with external interferences, proliferation of vast amounts of unchecked weapons, and an exploited economy, has given fertile ground for traffickers, armed groups, and operation-sights for global terrorist organizations such as Al Qaida and ISIS.

LIBYA AND THE BERLIN SUMMIT

The Berlin Summit held at the end of January 2020 aimed at negotiating a solution for peace in Libya. The governments of Algeria, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Turkey, the Republic of Congo, UAE, the UK, and the US gathered as well as the High Representatives of the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), and the League of Arab States.

It is no coincidence the list of invitees includes some of the world’s biggest power players. Intervention in Libya began in 2011 with a  NATO-led coalition , killing then Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. A civil war followed, resulting in great turmoil and a power vacuum. Today, a long list of various factions, militias, and international allies with political, security, or economic interest are involved in the struggle for power of the largest oil reserves on the African continent.

EU-involvement derives from containment of the vast amounts of refugees and migrants using Libya as a gateway to Europe, with the death toll at sea reaching nearly 5 000 since 2017. Continuous and widespread human rights violations and abuses such as slavery, trafficking, kidnapping, exploitation, and detention of refugees and migrants epitomize the level of impunity and criminality caused by the conflict.

The question is if there is any solution to the conflict that can be agreed upon while these unlikely allies attempt to negotiate. Chiefly, the self-interest of these stakeholders might be what has hindered a solution in the past. Ahead of the summit, a senior US State Department official said that the situation is so complex, and “the heels are so far dug in”, that the expectations of the talks were, at most, moderate.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

All participating parties signed a 55-point communique, in which they pledged to respect the UN-imposed arms embargo, which to date has severely failed. The summit conclusions will be sent to the UN Security Council to be approved and adopted, and it is the council’s actions that will prove if the meeting result in a real commitment or, more likely, window dressing. In the coming days, a meeting between military officials from each side is expected. This meeting is probably even more decisive for the future of the conflict.

The conference, building on a shaky ceasefire, brokered by Turkey and Russia on January 12, 2020, was supposedly a “first step to peace for Libya” to “make sure Libya doesn’t become a second Syria”. However, there seems to be competing views on what the future should entail. Meeting in Berlin was supposed to prove Europe’s engagement. So far, EU commitments has according to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), “unfortunately” been “very modest”. He calls for protection by the EU and the international community. However, the meeting representatives from the EU seemed to have a completely different opinion, maintaining that “the end of foreign interference in Libya’s internal affairs” was a necessary precondition for achieving peace and stability. A continuous eye on future meetings is essential to predict any outcome on the Libyan conflict.

Isabella Parling.jpg

Isabella is Masters student of human rights at Uppsala University in Sweden. She focuses on women’s rights, as well as humanitarian and conflict studies.

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