The military coup that rocked Myanmar on 1 February 2021 has thrown the country into chaos, with protests and violence escalating. Social dissent followed on the arrest of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and the dismantling of her elected government. Military forces repressing the protests have caused over 700 deaths, including of students, children, and unarmed protesters.
THE SPRING REVOLUTION
Citizens’ response to the coup has been of dissent and rebellion, with protests raging in the streets and nation-wide strikes across all sectors of society. As a result, around 90 percent of government activities have stopped; banks, hospitals, and factories are short of personnel; and the coronavirus response has been negatively impacted. By depriving the country of its workforce, the population hopes to exercise enough financial pressure over the military to force the end of the tyranny and the re-establishment of the democratic government—even if it means more sacrifice and hunger for themselves.
While the people of Myanmar take to the street of Yangon, Naypyidaw and other major cities in the country, in what has been named the “spring revolution,” ethnic leaders and representatives of the National League for Democracy (NLD), Suu Kyi’s party, have set up a “shadow government”. Called the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRHP), it has proclaimed itself the legitimate authority in Myanmar based on the NLD’s victory in the November 2020 general elections. By doing so, the CRHP is challenging the “military dictatorship” of the junta and creating a sense of unity that is unprecedented for such an ethnically-fragmented country.
THE RESPONSE FROM THE WORLD
International scrutiny has brought fierce condemnation from the West. The European Union (EU) has implemented a set of sanctions targeting 11 of the highest-ranked officials of the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s Armed Forces. They join another 14 sanctioned nationals that have been accused of committing atrocities against the Rohingya minority. Other measures include a suspension of diplomatic relations and assistance to the national government, as well as a pre-existing embargo on weapons and the export of any equipment that could be used for civil repression and monitoring.
Similarly, the United States (US) has sanctioned Myanmar’s biggest military holdings, Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL), banned dealings with business linked to the military, and frozen assets amounting to one billion dollars.
Foreign investors have also perceived this climate of hostility. The steel company from South Korea, POSCO, and Singapore-based Emerging Towns and Cities (ETC) have announced the termination of their involvement with Myanmar corporations and development projects.
Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) community, notorious for its principle of non-interference in domestic issues, has expressed its concern, calling for a special summit in Jakarta to address the issue. Over the weekend-long event, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo deemed the violence in Myanmar “unacceptable,” inviting “peace to be restored”.
THE TRUE COST OF SANCTIONS
While the West immediately felt the urge to take action and “punish” the military, many worry that sanctions might not be the best route to success this time around. Estimates have shown that, in 2003, the US bans on Myanmar’s textile cost 50-60,000 jobs. This leads to uncertainty about whether these restrictive measures might cause more harm than good to the already starved and desperate population. Many times in the past, sanctions have proved to be ineffective if not damaging, mostly serving the West’s self-imposed moral standards and defying domestic criticism for inaction.
Myanmar is now facing shortages of gasoline, imported goods, foreign aid, and investments. But the military generals are not likely to suffer these consequences, with most of their revenues coming from the trafficking of natural resources and gems. Oil and gas fields mostly employ foreign workers and have never ceased their activities. The export of these products have now reached earnings of up to 90 million US dollars a month.
Russia has openly criticised Western sanctions, accusing them of fuelling anger and acting as a catalyst for a civil war. However, Russia’s support for the military seems in line with the self-serving purpose of enhancing its economic influence in the region, a long sought-after desire of the Kremlin. Strengthening partnerships with Asia would relieve the economic pressure from the Western sanctions on Russia following its 2014 annexation of Crimea. Russia also possibly sees a profitable opportunity in the weapons market.
China and India have also remained vague in their positions. If the former has had to defend itself from accusations of censoring digital communications and supplying weapons to the military, the latter has expressed no signs of condemnation for its neighbour. The behaviour of Russia, China, and India might neutralise the efforts of both Western action and the Burmese population, allowing the military to rely on its business partnerships to mitigate the impact of sanctions and restrictions.
Ultimately, no further involvement is expected from the UN Security Council, with Russia and China making their veto powers count once again. Similarly, expectations are not high for future ASEAN discussions. Targeted sanctions and blacklisting seem to remain the favourite weapon of foreign governments to incite change in Myanmar and put an end to the violence and repression. The coup in Myanmar appears to be the latest in many setbacks in Southeast Asia’s attempt at democratisation, one that threatens to tip over the edge of what many already define Asia’s next failed state, now on the brink of a civil war and an economic disaster.
Laura is an International Relations graduate from Loughborough University, specialized in conflict management and human rights. She has experience in advocacy, journalism and research, and is involved as an editor, active contributor, and translator for several international organisations.