Kenya and Somalia are two neighboring countries that share many overlapping interests, including socio-economic relations and security. However, their relationship was tested over the standing maritime dispute rooted in the Indian Ocean border. For years, the two nations have argued over where their maritime boundary in the Indian Ocean runs.

Kenya claims that the boundary lies parallel to the line of latitude—giving it the larger share of the maritime area—and it has already sold mining licenses under this supposition to international companies. However, Somalia disagrees.

Somalia wants the boundary to extend to the southeast as an extension of the land border. In 2009, the two countries agreed to settle their dispute through bilateral negotiations. But these were unsuccessful, and as a result Somalia took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.

SOMALIA TAKES THE CASE TO ICJ

Following unsuccessful bilateral negotiations, Somalia filed a case before the ICJ in 2014 to determine who owns the sea. Despite Kenya's challenges, the ICJ declared itself competent to decide the case in February 2017. Kenya was pushing for an out-of-court settlement, but the Somali government has been resolute that the issue would go to full trial at the ICJ. The maritime dispute escalated to the ICJ following failed attempts of reaching amicable resolution on the case. The dispute, involving a narrow triangle off the coast of Africa, which is about 100,000 square kilometers (62,000 square miles), is the center of the issue between the neighboring countries. Both countries want the area, because it supposedly has a large deposit of oil and gas.

Kenya repeatedly requested the case in the ICJ to be postponed. The matter was postponed in October 2019 and in June 2020 due to the pandemic. In February 2021, Kenya requested another postponement, however the Court rejected its request and the hearing was scheduled for March 2021.

KENYA WITHDRAWAL FROM COURT HEARING

On March 2021, Kenya unexpectedly withdrew from the ICJ case at the last minute and sent a letter to the ICJ citing its reasons for not participating in the hearing, including the COVID-19 pandemic. It stated that the pandemic made it hard to adequately prepare for the case. Nonetheless, the ICJ is set to hold public hearings for the case at the Peace Palace in The Hague from 15 March to 24 March 2021.

Reports say that Kenya wants the case to be resolved outside of ICJ and instead seeks African Union mediation under the African border dispute mechanism system. According to foreign affairs principal secretary Macharia Kamau of Kenya, “the issue belongs in the African border dispute mechanism system”.

Regardless of the last-minute withdrawal of Kenya, the decision of court on the border will be binding on both countries. However, it may take years for the ICJ to rule on the maritime dispute. The ICJ, though, has no authority to enforce its rulings, and, in the past, some countries have simply ignored them. In the end, the disagreement between the two neighboring countries over an oil- and gas-rich area in the Indian Ocean is unlikely to spark an armed conflict, but it may have ramifications for fishing communities and the wider region.

PATH FORWARD

Kenya and Somalia are aligned in other realms, including their fight against the Al-Shabab Islamist group, which controls many rural parts of Somalia and has staged numerous deadly attacks in Kenya. Their deescalation of the situation, by resolving this dispute through dialogue and diplomacy, is essential. The nations need to find a lasting solution, whether ICJ rules for Somalia or whether the case is resolved by the African Union under the African border dispute mechanism, for their common good and that of their neighboring communities.